Posted by: graemebird | August 28, 2006

Greeny Doomsday Momentum

It would be easy to dismiss all the hysteria behind the global warming scare as being about tax-eater “science workers” being filtered through a tendentious herd of dumb-leftist journalists.

But what happens when you start seeing people, reliable people, peoplel that you thought of as good scientists also jumping onto the bandwagon of unreason……

I started thinking about this mainly because of Tim Flannery. Who I think is rather good but who suddenly seems to panic when he looks ahead into the near future.

I’m postulating here that the sheer BULLSHIT MOMENTUM of the movement has grown so white hot that even our better theorists have been pulled along like Babes in a Tsunami…. And where the smarter fellows are concerned its as if all their smarts and creativity is being channelled into inventing scare scenarios.

Here is a piece I’m trying to get through on Prodeo in response to some scare scenarios that the thoughtful Brian has taken off some of the scientists out there. Not all of them lunatics.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I want you to think about this Brian. Because when we get far I get my suspicions that the MOMENTUM has gotten so strong that even authentically talented scientists have been swept up and enticed into taking all their creativity to invent scary scenarios.

Lets take just one item here and I’ll show you how this phenomenon of MOMENTUM has likely had its influence.

“The problem with increasing CO2 in the atmosphere is in part that it causes the temperature to go up through the greenhouse effect. In some places it will rain less, in some more, but on the average it will tend to rain less often but in larger amounts.

That last point is a matter of simple physics. Warm air holds more water but when something triggers precipitation there is more of it up there to come down. So you get more of the drought and flood effect which, generally speaking, is not good for agriculture.”

I’ll translate for you what that means. Moving from Melbourne to Brisbane I got the overnight train to Roma street and then headed for Fortitude Valley waiting for the pubs to open up. It was about 6.00am or 6.30 am when I arrived and it was February and the air was warm and humid.

A bit later I saw schoolgirls in different school uniforms and I suppose its quite a disgraceful trick of memory but I don’t remember any schoolbuys.

Anyhow a few drops of rain started. And these girls in school uniforms quickly headed for cover. Which I immediately thought was odd. Why head fo cover with just a few drops of rain falling?

Well I soon found out. Because the stray raindrops preceded a sudden deluge of the sort that I didn’t ever see in Melbourne.

For sure. It rains in Melbourne. It even rains HARD in Melbourne. But not with that sort of suddeness. AND THE RAINDROPS WERE BIGGER AND HAD LESS SPACE BETWEEN THEM.

Pretty soon the early morning streets of Fortitude Valley were like a series of small rivers but it went just as fast as it came and with nothing to show for it but wet streets and the sun came out.

Now lets see what you said again:

“The problem with increasing CO2 in the atmosphere is in part that it causes the temperature to go up through the greenhouse effect. In some places it will rain less, in some more, but on the average it will tend to rain less often but in larger amounts.

That last point is a matter of simple physics. Warm air holds more water but when something triggers precipitation there is more of it up there to come down. So you get more of the drought and flood effect which, generally speaking, is not good for agriculture.”

We are not talking doom and gloom here though are we? All we are talking about is the difference between rain in July in Melbourne and rain in February in Brisbane.

What you are saying will not manifest itself as pockets of pure desert and pockets of hard rains, destroying all the topsoil, making life impossible. It will just mean a spreading of the potentially more fertile areas.

For otherwise how could it be that there is such an abundance of life in the tropics?

If you look at the most productive areas, as far as nature is concerned, in this world most of them have 2 things in common.

1. Hot and Humid

2. Haven’t been subject to too much human depredation and burning.

But if what YOU said was true all these incredibly productive places would have washed away down to mud or would have dried up into desert.

So I’m not faulting your reasoning here so much as saying to watch out for the consequences of MOMENTUM. And the consequences as far as I can make it is our best theorists like Tim Flannery getting sucked in to using all their smarts and creativity to conjure nightmare scenarios.

I’ll turn to this panty-waist algae in a little while.

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