Posted by: graemebird | November 23, 2006

The Black Pool Cover Misunderstanding.

What if a black pool cover lay atop each part of the oceans where the depth of the water was 100 metres or more?

Now I’ll have to be more specific, and we’ll have to bring in some magic to make this example fly. But just thinking about it how would that affect the climate?

Specifically can we say that it would lead to substantial warming? Runaway warming?……

‘Cooling’ perhaps…. did I hear….. somebody fearfully whisper down the back of the classroom?

It would lead to a new ice age. To a world covered in ice and there can be no doubt about it except to the extent that I haven’t refined the example well enough.

As I said we have to bring magic into it to refine the example in order to be able to say DEFINITIVE things about the outcome without having to rely on fieldwork or computation.

So I’ll channel the occult by having a single thought for a brief burst in time. But what shall I think about?

Well its really about lining up a series of occult things and compressing them into one item.

Women are pretty occult right? ‘Married to the moon’ and all. I’ll think about a woman. Lets make her a witch. Thats even more occult. There is nothing more occult then secular leftism in this world. So I’ll make her my favourite leftist witch.

Well SEX is pretty occult right? And whats better then one witch? Two witches right? A witches coven of two.


So having focused all that occult power into a span of time far less then a tenth of a second we now turn to the refining of the example. And we will make more then one example out of the problem.

1. Lets make it countless millions of midgit pool covers of one metre squared each. We’ll throw in a bit of magic and keep them all seperate from eachother by 1 centimetre.

2. Lets make it that they sink in the water all the time such that there is always one half-centimetre of water above them…… For example A

For example B we’ll make them hover above the water one centimeter.

For example C we’ll have them ten centimetres BELOW the water in all cases.

3. We’ll throw in some more of the magic, I channelled before, and make it that they don’t affect the ocean currents by affecting the friction between the air and the water. And they don’t affect the ocean currents by their mass. In all cases we’ll make it that they can only affect the currents indirectly by the change to the water or air TEMPERATURE and consequently to evaporation.

4. We will disregard any unexpected changes that come about from the death of animal and plant life due to reduced food supply.

5. We’ll make it that where ice appears the mats dissapear. There is never a mat within ten metres of sea-ice. But they reappear when the gap allows.

6. We’ll make it that the mats are only there if the water is more then ten metres (I said 100m before I know) deep.

Now how might we start to measure the temperature difference that this would cause.

Well if I went through the procedure of some alarmists scientists I’d average out how much extra watts per square metre this would lead to….. How much of a reduction in ‘Albedo’ as it were.

Then I’d take that figure. It might be 5, 10, 15 extra watts per square metre of ‘radiative forcing’ (2 entirely inappropriate words making an inappropriate phrase in this context).

Having gotten that figure we’d whack it through some formulas and things. Or yet even a computer model. And if I’m close to the form that I’ve witnessed from people like the UN crowd I’d calculate the temperature increase to be between a 20 degrees celsius increase in average temperatures (and here I begin to make things up. I cannot speak for these clowns nor do the computations myself) and a 50 degrees increase in average global temperature….

‘But we cannot rule out a “Runaway Greenhouse Affect”‘ they might say.

Actually these magic-mat pool covers would lead to a progressively colder planet. And in the end a planet where most of the ocean was covered in ice.

Now I’m not going to explain why right away. But this is part of my long-term project to show you just what an unbelievably poor state of health our science is in. And how we would design a long-term research project to enable us to predict how the climate will change some years ahead.

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