Posted by: graemebird | February 11, 2007

Capital Accumulation Critical To The Salvation Of The Natural World.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/space/article/0,,1977368,00.html

The usual story is that the sun will collapse and then blow out into a red dwarf in about 5 billion years.

But my analysis of Continental position being critical to global temperatures would seem to suggest that most animal life may have only about 300 million years left without the continued existence of capitalism.

Here I will not consider any stories about trans-humanism and the takeover of intelligent robotic life. Nor will I consider the dubious ethical merit of worrying about Gaias continuation in the absence of intelligent life.

It appears to me that there is little chance or time left for intelligent life to re-evolve again if the large animals are wiped out.

This is because left to its own devices the earth will likely become much warmer then it has ever been before.

There is no chance of this happening for a very long time.

But as we shall see, if the continental layout predictions are right in 250 million years time the continental layout will be such that the globe could heat right up and never get cool again.

Here we will not consider any force as tiny and irrelevant as CO2 release but instead we will look at only 3 factors:

1. The increasing output of the sun.

2. Continental layout.

3. The warmth radiating up from the earths core.

In this hypothetical we will consider humans and the basic nature of economics to remain unchanged over that 250 million years and we will show how human life would salvage the situation for not only ourselves but for the rest of the natural world.

You need to put two browser pages up side by side and cut and paste the links to the pictures of the historical continental layouts of the planet.

Make the left-hand browser as skinny as you can and use that to read my commentary. Then make the right-hand browser medium-skinny because the maps are pretty wide.

http://www.scotese.com/earth.htm

Here is the earth history page from which you can go to all of the maps.

There are projections for 50, 150 and 250 million years ahead.

Here’s the first projected atlas which depicts the world 50 million years from now.

http://www.scotese.com/future.htm

According to my interpretation we will still be technically in an ice age but it looks much milder then now because you see how the North Pole has opened out and Antarctica is slowly sliding away from the South Pole.

So no overheating and quite a good setup at that point. Weak glaciations if they ever get started and likely to back off quickly.

But look at the projection for 150 million years!!!!:

http://www.scotese.com/future1.htm

Although the sun is set to get warmer then it now is under my interpretation this looks like a cooling back down from the last one.

And probably the climate is much more unstable. Perhaps almost as bad as today.

Look at all the drought areas. This is because the lands are too clustered. Drought areas can lead to rapid warming when the sun is hot but they should act like pin cushions for the warmth if the sun is in a weak cycle.

Dig the way that the middle waters are cut off and surrounded. Also if things got really bad the ice could creep up into Australia and South America.

Perhaps not quite as cold as today because at least you have the North Pole unmolested, but quite a nasty setup with not much arable land.

Of course capital accumulation would piss on all that since no doubt we’d have unlimited energy production and we surely would be able to produce tons of fresh water from sea water.

Perhaps we’ll just have to focus a bit and everything we need show up like we have the Greeen Lanterns ring.

But I’m only talking about how I’d interpret it from the observation that ease of circulation ought to have an impact on planetary warmth.

Here’s the last one. A projection of 250 million years in the future.

http://www.scotese.com/future2.htm

Now finally this looks to me to be a very warm planet.

In fact its not too dissimiliar to the setup we have 195 million years before.

http://www.scotese.com/jurassic.htm

If anything the continental layout looks to be MORE condusive to warming 250 million years hence because neither pole is covered and surrounded whereas in the reconstruction of where the Continents were supposed to be 195 million years ago the North Pole was covered and surrounded.

But the difference here is that in the 445 million year interim the power of the sun will have grown considerably.

If anyone knows just how quickly the sun heats up over tens of millions of years do let me know. I’ve looked around the net and not found any definitive estimate so far.

It may be about 4% for every billion years.

Now lets look way back in time and see what happened when the sun was far less strong.

http://www.scotese.com/precambr.htm

This is a very cold world. And in the first instance it would seem to completely condradict my model of Continental layout affecting the warmth of the planet.

Because just looking at this setup the land is not getting in the way of ocean circulation hardly at all.

But looking around the internet I find estimates that the sun may have been 20-40% cooler then it is now. The very fact that the planet may not have been a total snowball is testimony to the strength of the ocean cirulation effect.

How about before that time?

If the sun has kept getting warmer all that time how cold must it have been before?

Well this is a contested matter but some folks think that the earth was largely under ice during most of the Neoproerozoic era and that at some times the glaciation made it all the way to the equator.

This era is from 1000 million years to 542 million years ago. Thats a long time to be under ice.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neoproterozoic

But there is a mystery there. How could the planet then NOT have been under ice BEFORE the Neoproterozoic era?

Well at this stage I’m going to put it down to energy coming from the Earths core. After all we started off as a molten ball of scum 4 billion years ago and the Neoproterozoic era might be the boundary where the core and mantle had cooled right down to levels similiar to today and with the cold sun in todays terms the water had to freeze up.

I’ll leave off at this point with my argument not yet explained.

I’d be happy if anyone had stumbled upon any better information about the three factors here that I’m saying are going to be the most important in terms of the warmth of the planet in he way distant future. That is to say the continental layout, the warmth radiated up from the earths core and the long-term warmth of the sun.

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Responses

  1. “But more than 10 years have passed since Henrik Svensmark in Copenhagen first pointed out a much more powerful mechanism.

    He saw from compilations of weather satellite data that cloudiness varies according to how many atomic particles are coming in from exploded stars. More cosmic rays, more clouds. The sun’s magnetic field bats away many of the cosmic rays, and its intensification during the 20th century meant fewer cosmic rays, fewer clouds, and a warmer world. On the other hand the Little Ice Age was chilly because the lazy sun let in more cosmic rays, leaving the world cloudier and gloomier.”
    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article1363818.ece

  2. Right Jim.

    The cosmic ray theory ties in brilliantly with the European historical record.

    Because although a colder world is a DRIER world the first thing that happens with a solar minimum is that you seem to get months of heavy rains.

    Just like your mans ideas would have predicted.

    Beccause its the solar wind which protects us from these cosmic rays. And when that turns down they get through and in the first instance produce all these clouds.


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