Posted by: graemebird | February 26, 2007

Oscillating Oceanic Heat Content.

This is the continuation of an earlier thread:

https://graemebird.wordpress.com/2007/02/19/communists-a-realclimateorg-fuckthedatacom-asking-the-wrong-questions/

I couldn’t seem to get to the point in that earlier thread.

In any case we left off here:

“Now because I’m an unreconstructured Luddite I should like you to go through the now familiar practise of setting up two browsers. Make the left one skinny and thats for my commentary. And make the right one such that you have ROGERS-CURVE in front of you.”

Here is the PDF I was talking about:

http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-247.pdf

We are looking at a small diagram down the bottom of page 3 or this 5 page pdf.

Now just qualify, in your own mind, the following statements with the fact that this is a 5-YEAR RUNNING MEAN. And the actual readings bounce about the place in a much more energetic way then this rather smooth curve you see before you:

Now your eyes might be better then mine but the heat content appears to peak somewhat close to the following dates:

1961, 1972, and 1991

The coldness bottoms at about 1966 and 1982.

Now if you guys had been just reading the newspaper and not looking at my blog, with threads on Continental layout, marginalist-analysis-as-applied-to-global-warming…… and Stefans-Boltzmanns law…… there would be NO WAY you could make sense of it all.

For one thing CO2 buildup may or may not mitigate the bottom of the trough by an imperceptible amount and it may or may not elevate the peaks………..likewise by a tiny margin.

BUT IT CANNOT BE DRIVING THE SYSTEM.

Have you all got that by now?

CO2 may help us in our endeavours to ward off catastrophe.

BUT CO2 CANNOT BE DRIVING THE CLIMATE SYSTEM.

This ought to be QUITE obvious.

Yet these cyclings don’t even appear to be following the dictates of the sun, unlike the atmospheric global-average temperatures, which are pushed up and down by the sun amost on the instant.

The gap between 1961 and 1972…. Well thats no worries. Thats a clear solar cycle gap…

…. But what about the gap between 1972 and 1991….?

Well with better eyes that could come close to two solar cycles in the gap…. But how is it that this is so inconsistent?

Or how about the gap in the troughs?

I’m saying 66 and 82.

But even so its a bit too much of a stretch to assume its a two-clean-solar-cycle-gaps deal.

So whats going on?

Well if you’d have been following my blog, with an enquiring mind, you would have at least the beginnings of a way of analysing this.

And so for “A BETTER WORLD” regulars.. the STRANGENESS of Rogers Curve, wouldn’t seem the least bit surprising.

But if you were listening to the land-and-atmosphere-biased alarmists you would be just totally mystified.

Whose got the best implcit model?

It is pretty clear that its ocean circulation that this heat content is keeping the rythm with.

And if the ocean circulation is such that the heat is not being distributed then we lose a powerful amount of energy out into space.

This reinforces my contention that if the Continental layout was such that the RESISTANCE-TO-CIRCULATION was LESS-THEN-IT-IS-NOW……………..

………….. then the heat content of the oceans would shoot up……..

…….. and the air temperatures would follow that..

SO ONE MILLION…… OR FIVE-MILLION-YEAR TEMPERATURE AVERAGES……… are found to be the result of a combination of AVERAGE-SOLAR-STRENGTH and RESISTANCE-TO-OCEANIC-CIRCULATION…

…. (and the resistance-to-oceanic-circulation is most visibly seen by the continental layout of the particular era)….

>>>>>>>>>

All of the above reinforces my contention that…….

…… far from nature having 5 billion years to muck about with on planet earth…….

………that without the human race, most of the animals and plants that make up the natural world……… aren’t making it past 300 million years……

NATURE AS WE KNOW IT, WON’T LIKELY SURVIVE MUCH BEYOND ANOTHER 300 MILLION YEARS, WITHOUT INTELLIGENT HOMO-SAPIEANS……………………………………………………………. IE CAPITALISM.

… And what survives THAT expected great-heating will be VERY different then what we have here today.

And on top of these bleak considerations (if you are an anti-human environmentalist) there really doesn’t seem too much chance of intelligent life re-emerging again if we blow it this time around.

But these last few comments are a little speculative.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

BRINGING IT BACK TO THE CURRENT TIME PERIOD.

When it comes to our current time period it is pretty clear that the CO2 may mitigate, but cannot hope to overpower our basic one-way-cooling bias.

Just look at that little diagram for a few minutes in contemplation.

I mean if the oceans can shed that amount of energy when the Gulf Stream (for example) is at the slow part of its cycle…

…..and even more when its at the slow-but-accelerating part of its cycle….

…… then what can a tiny bit of extra CO2 do to stop this?

Close to fuck all I would have thought?

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

SOME INDUCTIVELY DERIVED PRINCIPLES……

FOR SIMPLIFICATION I WILL TALK AS IF THE “GULF STREAM” WAS A FAIR REPRESENTATIVE OF THE GLOBAL OCEAN CURRENTS IN THEIR ENTIRETY.

Certainly pound-for-pound the actual Gulf Stream will be more important then the rest of the oceanic currents, for our present enquiries, because of the somewhat equator-to-pole aspect of it.

But the researcher will have to look for some sort of weighted-composite-measure, involving other aspects of the behaviour of the oceans, in order to verify what we are saying here, so that a decent model might be made….(for a change).

The other matter is the “FORBUSH EVENTS”.

These are solar flares.

Either big ones or mini-ones.

These FORBUSH EVENTS will be of surpassing importance.

But I will talk, in the following analysis, as if they are merely an outsized temporary increase in solar irradiance.

I’m doing this for simplicity only.

NOW WITH ALL THE SIMPLIFYING ASSUMPTIONS THERE ARE A FEW BROAD GENERALISTIONS WE CAN MAKE:

IN A TIME PERIOD WHERE:

1. The “Gulf Stream” is faster-then-average AND decelerating……………. then the ocean WILL BE GROWING IN HEAT whenever the irradiance is above average AND SOMEWHAT BELOW AVERAGE AS WELL.

This is the clearest time when the ocean will absorb-most-readily the suns energy.

When the Gulf stream is very-fast-but-decelerating. The deceleration says that the heat differentials aren’t particularly strong………… yet the differential with the new energy coming in from the sun……. will be distributed very quickly and efficiently.

And so Stefans-Boltzmanns law says that the oceans will retain an unusual amount of the suns energy under those circumstances.

2. When the “Gulf Stream” flow is slower-then-average and ACCELERATING then under all but the strongest solar-flux-conditions…………….. the oceans will be losing heat energy.

So under ALL levels of solar flux, up to average and somewhat beyond average… under the above conditions the oceans will lose energy.

This is because the ocean will not redistribute the energy from the sun very well and so Stefans-Boltzmanns law dictates that this means that much energy will be radiated into space.

And the fact that the “Gulf Stream” is ACCELERATING means that on-the-instant the heat differentials are very strong and so the oceans will lose a great deal of heat.

So we have a few TENDENCIES here for the researcher to track.

1. ACCELERATION (associated with the oceans LOSING energy)

2. A HIGH-VOLUME-“GULF-STREAM” (assiciated with the oceans GAINING energy)

3. HIGH-SOLAR-IRRADIANCE (WITH AN EXTRA WEIGHTING FOR FORBUSH EVENTS)………….

(associated with the oceans GAINING energy)

Now I could number these generalisations up to 6…. But its just the vice-versa of the above three….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Thats the technical stuff over.

On the other thread I kicked this rant off with REALCLIMATE.ORG (fuckthedata.com) wondering out loud what it was that caused GLACIATIONS.

It takes a bit of pondering but I tell you the truth!

From the above we can see for absolute certain that what will screw us up is the combination of:

1. The Malinkovitch cycles being condusive to GLACIATION…

…. (which they are getting more-and-moreso as time goes on)….

… combined with……

2. TWO OR MORE “DOWN” SOLAR CYCLES……

……………..(((Adjusted for solar-flare-events (((ie “Forbush Events”))))))

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

THE ABOVE DIAGNOSIS OF WHAT COULD SPARK OFF A NEW MINI-ICE-AGE OR THE END TO THE INTER-GLACIAL NOW BECOMES QUITE OBVIOUS.

It might not seem so straight away.

But give yourself enough time to absorb the generalisations I was able to make above and you will see that the answer to what could kick off a “mini-ice-age” or yet even a more lasting end to the current INTERGLACIAL actually jumps out and hits you between the eyes.

Because whereas a single weak cycle on its own, might simply lead to the “Gulf-Stream” Decelerating………………

……….. we have seen that the ocean can still absorb a reasonable amount of energy, even if the solar power is not as strong as it could be, when the “Gulf Stream” is fast but decelerating…..

………But if we get (2)…two….TWO……. two- “DOWN” (ie very weak) solar cycles (equalised for Forbush events)……IN A ROW…..

…. then we will definitely, DEFINITELY…. By the time the SECOND weak solar cycle rocks around…

…. By that time we will definitely have both a weak “GULF-STREAM”………………….. as well as a WEAK-FLARE-EQUALISED-SOLAR-CYCLE….

……. AND THEREFORE the oceans will lose energy like nobodys business.

AND DIG THIS….

Supposing we get a NORMAL SOLAR CYCLE as our THIRD solar-cycle in this story?

Well then we’ll have a slow-but-accelerating Gulf-Stream….

…..And the above generalisations I was able to make then tell us that we will STILL be losing energy most of the time.

SO A DOUBLE-DOWN (FORBUSH-ADJUSTED) SOLAR-CYCLE IS A COMPLETE FUCKING DISASTER IF THE MALINKOVITCH CYCLES ARE AGAINST YOU.

And all we can do is to do every damn thing we can to increase the heat-energy-content of the oceans.

That means INCREASE-THE-CO2-AND-REDUCE-THE-AEROSOLS.

So no (for fucksakes) carbon taxes or CO2-sequestration.

But generalised aerosol pollution… well yes that is an important subject.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

At about this point you might be wondering what the flying-fuck was all that talk about the MORNING-ICE-TRUCK in that small village in Thailand?

Well if we are RICH ENOUGH. And if our technology and infrastructure is MAGNIFICENT enough…. Then when the inevitable ice age rears its ugly head…….

….. perhaps it will be just a matter of ice being transported commercially towards the equator???

If you are living in palacial high-rise in Equador and you are fabulously rich you might want a lot of ice for water, air-conditioning and to take the edge off that Bundaberg Rum you are importing from Australia.

CAPITALISM IS ALWAYS THE ANSWER!!!!!

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Categories

%d bloggers like this: