Posted by: graemebird | February 27, 2007

Analysing A Heat Content Turning-Point.

This follows on with the thread immediately prior.

Remembering that we made these inductive generalisations about how the oceans would absorb energy:

“So we have a few TENDENCIES here for the researcher to track.

1. ACCELERATION (associated with the oceans LOSING energy)

2. A HIGH-VOLUME-”GULF-STREAM” (assiciated with the oceans GAINING energy)

3. HIGH-SOLAR-IRRADIANCE (WITH AN EXTRA WEIGHTING FOR FORBUSH EVENTS)………….

(associated with the oceans GAINING energy)

Now I could number these generalisations up to 6…. But its just the vice-versa of the above three….”

You would have to go back and read all the simplifications and caveats I’ve made to that. But we will see if we can apply these inductive principles to a turning point.

That is to where the oceanic heat content has peaked and is now dropping. I don’t want to wimp out here so I’ll use the most recent turning-point available to me, make some commentary and I’ll be proved spectacularly wrong or I won’t.

So we’ve got the deal about using the left handed browser for my commentary and the right-handed browser to just stare at a diagram in contemplation.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/people/lyman/Pdf/heat_2006.pdf

On your right browser you ought to have the diagram on page 10 of this 15 page pdf.

Your judgement of these things might be better then mine but I make the top that we will be talking about as happening about midway through 2003

I make it that there was a more ambiguous bottom turning-point around mid 1995.

Now what is to follow is only an analysis of what ought to happen AT A TYPICAL turning point like the 2003 turning point. You must bear this in mind. This is not really about 2003 as such. But merely about a turning-point and we shall see if it bears any resemblance to what actually happened/is happening.

Now the oceans were consistently gaining energy between mid-1995 to mid-2003.

8 years solid of gaining energy at a rapid rate?

COULD THIS BE CO2 AT WORK?

Actually no that was just a joke and I hope everybody got it. (YOU BETTER FUCKING HAVE GOTTEN THAT JOKE).

But immediately, people who believe in the importance of solar cycles are in some trouble here. Because I happen to know that this 8 year period was mostly within solar cycle 23 and somewhat within solar cycle 22 and these two cycles weren’t particularly strong as compared to their predecessors. They were rather average for the 20th century I think.

So to have 8 years of a steady increase in the heat energy content means that the “Gulf Stream” must have been very powerful yet decelerating. We can see that as the only explanation that would explain it. I mean we might have had a sudden reduction in aerosols or the CO2 hitting some sweet point but really thats not going to do the dramatic job we are talking about…. So we have to assume a strong-yet-decelerating “Gulf Stream”

I’m continuing to put the inverted commas around the words ‘Gulf’ and ‘Stream’ in order to remind people that I’m simplifying and using the Gulf Stream as an indicator for the mysteries workings of ocean circulation in its entirety.

Now we would expect certain peaks and troughs to hit close to BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME AS EACHOTHER.

If the Gulf Stream was decelerating we might expect that the solar strength would have peaked quite a bit before mid-2003.

Perhaps while the solar peak was happening that would temporarily halt the deceleration of the Gulf Stream or perhaps even accelerate it for a bit.

But since that would be followed by a drop-off in solar activity AND a deceleration of the Gulf Stream I would say the energy would go on accumulating.

Now we might then see the “Gulf Stream” hit a trough in its flow. And this will come somewhat after the energy peak of mid-2003.

But though the “Gulf Stream” is still decelerating it is no longer going to be associated with adding energy to the system because solar activity is down off its peak….. but also because the rate of the flow of the Gulf Stream will now be A GOOD DEAL SLOWER THEN AVERAGE.

Slower then average but still falling.

Here is those various factors that are working at odds against eachother again:

“So we have a few TENDENCIES here for the researcher to track.

1. ACCELERATION (associated with the oceans LOSING energy)

2. A HIGH-VOLUME-”GULF-STREAM” (assiciated with the oceans GAINING energy)

3. HIGH-SOLAR-IRRADIANCE (WITH AN EXTRA WEIGHTING FOR FORBUSH EVENTS)………….

(associated with the oceans GAINING energy)”

So just imagine if the sequence goes like this…….

The Gulf-Stream is higher-then “average” but decelerating for most of the time during that 8 years.

We’ll have the sun peaking in 2001, We’ll have the Gulf Stream falling below “average” earlier then 2001 but then again afterwards… perhaps in early 2003, we have the heat energy peak in mid-2003… And maybe we’ll have a sort of oscillating trough for the actual speed of the Gulf Stream… it bumping along the bottom between 2004 and 2010 or something…. depending on when he can get a burst of uncommonly strong energy from the sun to start it accelerating again.

Now what does this all mean?

I think it means you ought to buy property in Northern Queensland myself. Because even if 24 is a pretty strong solar cycle most of that strength will have to go into reaccelerating the Gulf Stream.

We had two fairly moderate solar cycles in 22 and 23 and yet we kept right on embedding heat.

Its NOW that we will see that this is not a forever thing.

24 cannot save us from the warming levelling off even if it turns out to be a powerful cycle. But if 24 is going to be weaker the 22 and 23 was we don’t have to wait for the 2030’s for things to start cooling down.

They will, in that situation start cooling down from here on in.

And of course under that situation (ie solar cycle 24 being weaker then either 22 or 23) then we are really in trouble when solar cycle 25 hits.

If however solar cycle 24 is bigger then either still expect a levelling off in the climate. And still expect the 2030’s to be colder then it is now.

You see we were stowaways all of us…. coasting a ride on a warm Northward current. And we were going to have to pay up sooner or later.

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