There are a few pre-requisites to this and they will all take many millions of years. Which of course means that this overheating talk is a total fucking fantasy without the least bit of justification for it.
THE SOUTH POLE NO LONGER SURROUNDED BY ANTARCTICA.
Take a look at this map of Antarctica:
This is something you cannot see from a traditional flat map of the globe that we are used to looking at.
Antarctica is about 80% larger then Australia. Now just locate for yourself three items. See where it says the Ross Sea and Ross Ice Shelf. Well you see how it looks like a big chunk has been taken out of the continent. Now next see where the South Pole is…. OK the third place you are looking for is the Atlantic Ocean.
The point of this is that the Wikipedia claims that the Antarctic tectonic plate is moving in the direction of the Atlantic Ocean at the rate of about 1 cm per yer.
So you can see that right there THE CONTINENT IS MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION to end the cooling bias. If Antarctica was moving in the other direction that would mean the South Pole was becoming even more substantially surrounded.
But think how long it will take for the South Pole to be quits with Antarctica and so much so that there is no longer sea ice connected permanently, all the way between the sea ice and the land?
Lets say we needed the Continent to move 1000 kilometres in the direction of the Atlantic ocean in order to fulfill these requirements. And lets say the rate of movement was 1 cm per year in that constant direction for all that time.
These aren’t necessarily very good assumptions. But just to get people a sort of idea of the time level involved here. To move 1000 kilometres at 1cm per year this would take 1cm X 100 years (equals 1m) X 1000 (equals 1 km) X 1000 (equals 1000km)= 100 million years.
I must defer to people who specialise in plate tectonics to get any sort of precision going here. But what we can say is that here we have a big barrier to us getting out of the planetary bias. And that this particular block will likely be with us for millions if not tens of millions of years.
Now there is another block, and this is something thats getting in the way on a different time-scale. And this is the suns activity. We were in the twentieth century on a solar high. And here we are talking about ups and downs that work in terms of hundreds or thousands of years.
Since we have been on a high the only place to go is down.
Now bear in mind. My understanding is that on a much longer time-scale the suns activity will continue to slowly get stronger over the next 2 billion years. But unless it suddenly notches up to a new plateau, then we are talking a change that will take many millions of years to manifest itself.
Now the next thing is an early warning system that all that ice in Antarctica gives us.
Supposing its ten million years from now. And the suns activity has notched up a bit. So that the sort of concerns that nincompoops are having right now appear to be just that bit more realistic.
What would be an early warning system that could tell us that we ought to worry about catastrophic warming in this hypothetical situation?
Well I’d be actually looking at the Temperature of Antarctic Ice. You see while a lot of excess heat would be pouring out into space via Antarctica to end the cooling bias we really need that great mass of ice to be somewhat closer to melting point.
This gives us two further blocks to the end of the cooling bias.
WE NEED THE ANTARCTIC ICE TO GET SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO MELTING POINT. (more about the second barrier later)
This is because we need the ice to actually melt in order to end this cooling bias. And we need for the air above the ice to be capable of holding water vapour. At least in the summer. And air that is sub-zero cannot hold water vapour in sufficient quantities to warm up enough to have any significant melting going on in the long daylight of summer in Antarctica. So we have a sort of vicious circle where there is just no way for Antarctica to stay warm long enough to melt off any ice. And so the whole area with be a heat sink for many more millions of years.
“There are two types of ice in Antarctica, the continental icesheet, and sea-ice. The ice sheet covers over 99% of continent and has a mean thickness of 2.16 km. By multiplying the area of the ice sheet (13,524,390 square km)by this thickness, we find that the total volume of the continental ice sheet is 29,212,682 km cubed.”
Elsewhere I’ve heard that the temperature of this ice is less then -50 degrees celsius. Lets try and get an approximate figure for how many joules it would take to increase the temperature of this massive amount of ice about 50 degrees Celsius… And we would still be leaving it AS ICE.
“Since the specific heat of ice is 0.50 cal/g-oC, that means that 0.50 calories is needed to raise 1g of ice 10C. Thus, it would take 50 x 0.50 calories to raise 50g up 10C and 10 x 50 x 0.50 = 250 cal to raise the ice to its melting point.”
I got the above from some childrens science lesson but don’t know how exact it is. We will however use it because we are just making an approximation.
You see it takes half the amount of energy to raise a gram of ice one degree as it takes to raise a gram of water 1 degree. Although I don’t know how exact that figure is.
Now bear in mind that whatever figure I come up with, even if I don’t make a silly mistake, THAT figure is likely to be as much as an order of magnitude out. But just to give you an idea of whats involved here………
….. It takes 1 calorie to increase the temperature of 1 gram of water by 1 degree in temperature. But as they say above, only half that much to increase a gram of ice by one degree. 1 calorie is 4.184 Joules. One cubic centremetre of water is 1 gram of water. But it takes more like 1.09 cubic centremetres of ice to make up a gram at surface pressures.
Surely a great deal of these many cubic kilometres of ice must be under great pressure and therefore might be more massive then what the volume suggests. I won’t take this into consideration. And will deflate the volume a bit since ice takes up more volume then the equivalent mass of water. Since I don’t wish to overstate my case here.
((((One caveat is that the ice at the very bottom is likelier to be a little bit warmer since it will be getting some warmth from the earths crust. But just bear in mind I’m not taking that into account either. We are just going for some perspective here.)))))
Therefore in the interests of being conservative we will deflate the volume of ice involved here by multiplying it by .92.
We had 29,212,682 cubic kilometres X .92 = 26,875,667 cubic kilometres.
How many cubic centimetres in a cubic kilometre? Well we must multiply in three dimensions. We have to multiply 100 centimetres to get to 1 metre, then we must multiply by 1000 metres to get a kilometre.
But thats just for the length. We have to multiply again by another 100 000 to get the area and another 100 000 to get the volume.
So we need 100 000 X 100 000 X 100 000 cubic centremetres to make one cubic kilometre. Thats 10 to the power of 15 right there.
Lets line it all up then:
The amount of retained energy we will need to get that great mass of ice within a Cooee of melting point equals………..
The amount of heat necessary to heat the whole lot of this ice up by about 50 degrees centigrade equals……….
50/2 X 4.184 Joules X 26,875,667 X 1,000,000,000,000,000…..
equals….. 2,811,194,768.2 petajoules.
And this is before any of the fucking stuff even melts. Or before the air around it can really retain a whole lot of water vapour. So if we were to add this extra energy to the ice the fucking stuff would still be solid ice and no water vapour in the air. This is somewhat getting in the way of this total fantasy of the seas rising and turning acidic and the air temperature spiralling all the way up to Venusian conditions.
Lets express this in terms of megatons of TNT so we can bring some reality to it. A ton of TNT is about 4.184 gigajoules according to the wiki.
Or 4,184,000,000 Joules.
Now any notation of mine here will be clumsy. So I must detract from transparency here and just tell you that I worked it out with the help of some paper and a pen and my computer calculator at 671,891,675,000,000 tons of TNT or 671,891,675 megatonnes of TNT.
Now when will the Antarctic ever get the chance to absorb anything like this sort of heat energy? For the love of Allah its turns into a fucking sustained night-time there, for months at a time EVERY YEAR.
Any surplus heat thats been absorbed by any warm air in the summer is going to be dissapated. But there is a second barrier to melting all that ice and thats the LATENT HEAT OF MELTING.
You see. Even when ice finally gets to where its within a COO-EE of melting its still got to face this latent-heat-of-melting hurdle. And the latent heat of melting is 80 calories per gram. Or in otherwords more then three times as much again as it took to heat that ice up to where it was within melting range in the first place.
OK there is more sums to do. But then we don’t have all the data. We don’t have any estimates of how warm the ice is two kilometres deep. But I hope you are getting the idea that with this dual hurdle we would get plenty of advance notice to the ending of our inherent planetary ONE-WAY-COOLING-BIAS.
Am I getting through to people yet? Am I getting through to you the sheer fairies-in-the-garden nature of the heating scare?
Bear in mind. We here on planet earth in the year 2007 need no early warning system for heating. Only for cooling.
But what I’m saying is that if in ten million or twenty million or thirty million years time there was some sort of need for an early warning system, since the sun had brightened up to a new plateau in the interim…. what I’m saying is that we would ALREADY HAVE that early warning system.
And it would be when Antarcic ice was no longer negative 50-something degrees six metres below the surface. But instead when it was maybe 10-20 degrees below zero. And EVEN THEN…… before this montrous-waste-of-white-water could melt……. it would still face the latent heat of melting barrier.
One day this planet, under the assumptions I’ve made, without intelligent life, and without capitalism, would surely becomes too hot for life as we know it. I think that day is a lot earlier then people in the past have generally assumed. Perhaps its 300 milion years away but its no pressure with the continued expansion of capitalism. We will easily find away around this. Eons and Eons of draining off geothermal energy may be one way around this.
But thats an whole other story. We-The-Living only have to worry about cooling. For millions and millions of years we will only ever have to worry about cooling.
The warming scare is a TOTALLY IDIOTIC FUCKING FANTASY. An example of immense mass-stupidity,and the ultimate example of lemming-like wrong-way-Corriganism writ large.
Its as though we were being cursed and haunted by AYN-RANDS-GHOST. Its as if she were yelling at us “I-TOLD-YOU-SO!!!!!” as a big fat frightening riposte to the idea of socialised science and education. As a vindication for the John Galt character being much more super-pissed at his old science teacher then at anyone else.
The stupidity and evasiveness of alleged scientists (ie science workers) these days is really that frightening.