Posted by: graemebird | May 4, 2007

Two Contrary Forces Working On Different Time-Scales Will Set Up A Cycle.

Here I introduce a new idea into the debate that I haven’t introduced before.

We know about the Malinkovitch Cycles.

But I’d want to see if there is the potential for another UNDERLYING cycle that would dovetail into the Malinkovitch cycles and make these glacial periods and interglacials so hard to predict and understand.

But most of this post from Rogers site is the reworking of old themes. Still its good to keep looking at it because this stuff can be hard to understand. But within all that I’ve thrown in this new possibility.

Its just an idea that some young researcher might take up.

From Rogers site:

In reply to Graeme Birds’ comments, Would there be an expert in the house that could enlighten the readers( that might not know) as to when, approximatly, we are/were due for another ice age?

Comment by Richard Raffenot — May 3, 2007 @ 5:41 pm

There is no switch that you flick Richard.

Its an impossible prediction to make and its not necessarily unrelated to what we do now.

For example if we deep-sixed this campaign-against-warmer-winters-for the Laplanders… and supposing from tommorrow we had our fossil fuels consumption expanding much more quickly… and someone invented and applied a cheap method of capturing all Aerosols from volanoes…. and the Chinese cleaned up their SO2 release….

Well then it might be that the ice retreated a few metres more then otherwise in the Summer and didn’t come on quite so strong by just one or two metres in the Winter.

And after 10,000 years of this it was enough to save our asses.

Who knows these things?

Unlike the other planets, the watery planet appears too serendipitous to predict entirely at the moment.

The blinkered nature of the trace-gas-hysterics, may partly come from the way that that greenhouse science has progressed. In that it has progressed partly from looking at other planets in the solar system.

The thing about the gaseous planets is that gases don’t have that same issue of resistance-to-circulation that our planet with its primary greenhouse substance (liquid water) has.

These people are atmosphere and radiation fetishists. And the ocean only ever comes into their thinking as a tacked-on-afterthought.

But what WE have to do is go with the odds.

As more information comes in about prior glaciations we see that there are times within a GLACIAL PERIOD, wherein the climate warms some.

And in interglacials there are all these nasty cooling periods like our recent “mini-ice-age”.

So I would propose that the REAL way to look at it is not to think of it as a sudden switch turning-on………. and we are suddenly in a glacial period.

It rather more seems that we are living on a planet with a ONE-WAY-COOLING-BIAS.

The natural way of things is for this planet to veer into cold spells.

And anything WE can do, to help warm the planet, and melt off some of the ice, in preparation for the next time things veer towards the deep freeze………..

….. Well obviously anything we can do in this department is A GOOD THING.

I say OBVIOUSLY because this is just so obvious its basically irrefutable.

There is no evidence that a little bit of human-induced-warming is a bad thing during a brutal and pulverising ice-age.

And in actual fact you’d have to be pretty dopey to not see that human-induced-warming (so small on the global level, if it exists, we cannot scientifically verify it) is a good thing. No gift-horse to be looking-in-the-mouth of.

Other then the Malinkovitch cycles, there are a couple of other matters researchers ought to look into to see if Glacial periods can become hard-wired or not….

….And if glaciationos are anything more then a basic one-way-cooling bias combined with the Malinkovitch cycles….. (and these two influences marking time for the third influence of a downturn in the suns activities)….

Researchers ought to be looking into a couple of things in this regard.

And those other things that I think ought to be looked into is firstly the possibility of the ice moves so far South that the very existence of this sea-ice further increases the RESISTANCE-TO-OCEANIC-CIRCULATION that I believe is the next most important determinant of the warmth of the earth after the general average strength of solar activity.

You see, what would happen in this case, is that on one level you’d have severe cooling that resulted indirectly from this further increase in the RESISTANCE-TO-CIRCULATION.

Then on another level the existence of permanent sea-ice would have this great insulative effect.

But the resistance to circulation would work much faster…. making the ocean lose a lot of its heat budget… And yet its just possible that when the ice got far enough the insulative effect would accumulate and finally kick in decisively.

The sea ice would creep further even as it was thinning.

And so you can see the possibility of a natural cycle there……. that dovetailed in with the Malinkovitch cycles…..

…and with the changes in the activities of a sun that works to his own rythms.

Comment by Graeme Bird — May 4, 2007 @ 3:00 am

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