Posted by: graemebird | August 18, 2007

Heat-Budget, Strata And Down-Up-Joules Paradigm: Applications.

From climate-science-colarado blog:

“Most of measurements I have seen show warming by black carbon aerosols dominating over cooling by sulfate aerosols, so I lean towards +0.3 W/m2 warming, implying that the climate sensitivity is lower than what Schwartz says.”

Douglas. I think all serious (ie non-alarmist) climate scientists here should examine the paradigms they are operating under.

Because I am virtually certain that the above statement must be wrong. If we go with a paradigm that emphasises heat-budgets, strata and the down-up tragectory of joules from the sun…… over the currently bi-partisan dominant paradigm which emphasises spectroscopy and watts-per-square-metre……

….then we would have to assume that all aerosols, black and white, are reducing the amount of energy being punched deep into the ocean.

Furthermore these aerosols, regardless of colour, will have a tendency to promote condensation thus removing water vapour from the air. And on top of that they may even promote rain… sending latent heat up to higher strata where it will be more quickly lost to space.

Surely we are due for a paradigm shift here. When both sides are bogged down in controversy and the sensible side harbours any amount of unresolved question-marks then its probably a sign that the paradigm needs to shift for the scales to fall from everyones eyes.

Consider the case of a deep outdoor swimming pool. Lets make it ten metres deep. Putting a black pool cover on it would seem to reduce the pools albedo. And putting the cover on at night will hold some of the warmth in.

But the black pool cover will make for a freezing pool if it is left in place during the daytime. Albedos’ overated. Only the top few inches of the pool will be warm but the pools heat-energy-budget overall will be severely reduced.

Seen from this perspective all aerosols regardless of colour and all clouds regardless of height….. though they may seem to, in the immediate sense, keep the air warm….. they all will be reducing the heat budget of the oceans.

Not only is everybody labouring under a sub-optimal paradigm. But with the exception of Roger and a few others everyone is emphasising the wrong metric.

Only the ocean and perhaps the earth itself has the specific heat capacity for CUMULATIVE warming of the sort that is relevant to the global warming debate.

If you work through the logic of a strata, heat budgets and down-up-joules paradigm……. I think you will quickly see that virtually all unresolved issues immediately look resolveable.

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