Posted by: graemebird | September 12, 2008

Sea Level As The Ultimate Metric For Global Warming.

 Of course this may be an oversimplification and probably is. And in fact it may be plain wrong. In fact its not even a new thread but perhaps I’d given the other thread the wrong name and the point I was trying to make might be ignored. Really this is a question. The question being “Ought not sea level be a very good metric for imbedded joules in the oceans: 


Here is the best graph I can find and its from our own CSIRO. I perceive an “OUT” for the former alarmist who is fast enough on his feet.

Supposing you were to make the wild conjecture that the best measure of joules accumulated in the system, when considering the short-term as well as time-scales relevant to human history is SEA LEVEL HEIGHT.

Its not such a bad conjecture that this simple measure might be even better than the system of buoys they have got going out there. For one thing you have more of a chance of estimating ancient data with this simpler measure. And for another thing temperature measurements aren’t going to be enough. Because a lot of latent energy ought to be tied up in thermal expansion. On top of that there is a great amount of latent energy of melting. Also the buoys don’t go down all the way.

So its not an implausible conjecture but we need the empirical evidence for or against this idea. Or whatever the data tells us.

Now check out the graph. See how the black line peaks and falls every year. This is definitely in line with the earth moving closer to and further away from the sun. We therefore want to see what the delay is. The most energy will have accumulated not on the day when we are closest to the sun. But some time after that. Just as the day is warmer usually at 2.00pm than it is at noon.

So researchers ought to be trying to figure out what the delay is here. The delay between theoretical peaks in total joules in the system and the peak in sea level. Nonetheless one would think that the expansion would react pretty quickly.

Now from a pure atmospheric temperature point of view we see that the warmest year was 1998. And from measurements of imbedded energy in the oceans (I don’t know if they are corrected for thermal expansion and melted ice) we see the peak coming around late 2003 I think. And a pretty weak drop-off but then they’ve corrected this at least twice and I haven’t seen a good updated set of graphs for this.

But here’s a good excuse you alarmists can put together for taking too long to come onto the side of righteousness and I’ll give it to you for free.

And that excuse is that you were using the sea level as your ultimate metric of cumulative warming. That way you can say “How can you blame me? Look when my favoured metric turned down? It didn’t so much as flatten until 2006-2007 and I didn’t have the 2008 data. There wasn’t even a trend established.”

There you are. You better run with it and try to avoid the mass-sackings that I hope will come to pass. I hope none of you avoid the axe but there you are. You ought to move quickly.



  1. Can you come in under a different name fella? The hellbound gay-homosexual-queer taint was really laid on thick on my blog while I was away. So I’m going to have to wipe your posts pretty soon. Just on account of the fact that I’ve got to free the blog from this mental association.

    If you have an idea about the Mars pictures than you ought to go to the right thread and make that argument for the very first time. The universes doesn’t automatically follow your prejudices and we must follow the evidence the best we can.

    Now apart from these homo slurs what do you think of the reasoning involved. I want to know how may joules a thermal expansion leading to 1cm increase of sea level implies.

  2. Look Greenfield is a pretty smart guy. I think you ought to be listening to him more carefully.

    Homers pretty rigid in his thinking. But this jive about the Nazis not mobilising economically. That used to be established historical dogma.

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