The reasons we cannot assume that technical innovation can arrive in time are the following.
1. Technical innovation is just the visible part of the ice-berg. Or just the icing on the cake. That technical innovation we see as members of the public is what I’m talking about here.
In reality TECHNICAL INNOVATION IS EMBEDDED IN CAPITAL UPDATE. And it implies not just the design of the plasma screen. But for that updated plasma screen to be economic the suppliers of the manufacturer would also need capital update, their suppliers and the foreigners they outsource to. And their suppliers too. Which is why the Concord was pulled from service as miraculous as it was. Because it was the icing on the cake without the cake.
2. So we have said that profitable technological update is and must be imbedded in capital update. But you see capital investment is ENERGY EXPENSIVE. Or more commonly ENERGY INTENSIVE….. Capital update needs energy.
And to run that new capital requires energy also, with puny energy-efficiencies as a secondary concern. Furthermore capital update doesn’t just mean better machines at every stage of the process. Boehm Bawerk tells us that capital update means A LENGTHENING OF THE STRUCTURE OF PRODUCTION.
So what we are saying here is that though energy efficiencies may be going on in the background all the time BE THAT AS IT MAY…. in the first instance a progressing economy means an increase in per capita energy usage because of the lengthening of the structure of production.
3. Since technological development is imbedded in capital update. And since capital update means greater energy usage………. But there is a third factor to consider.
You need capital goods to gather energy. You can gather as much energy as you want but its capital goods that gather that energy.
4. Putting it altogether we see that energy is essential for capital update. Which is essential for technological development.
All the way down the line.
So Cambria is quite right but he understates his case. If we put everything on a throw of the dice on some energy system that the socialists choose we will lose that bet. The entire bet is going forward on the basis of ignorance of economic science.