Posted by: graemebird | August 16, 2009

Matching Famines Against The CO2 Record.

Please believe me that this is no rigup. These posts were made with no pre-meditation, and with very little CONCENTRATION for that matter. The posts were done in realtime, while I was doing a bunch of other things, and somewhat kicking back after working overnight.

There is some real traction to be made be relating crop yields in the 19th and early 20th Century to the CO2-level record. Let me be the one to kick this off this very morning. I of course had no access to crop yield records. And so I just talked about FAMINES which I figure is a pretty weak proxy. This was done as a stream-of-consciousness. It is for this reason I think that the matter ought to be fully investigated. The agricultural output checked against the CO2 record.

The take home story is that the CO2 will likely begin to drop soon. And it can drop quickly. We want to go the heliostats and nuclear as well as hydrocarbons sure. But we need to crank up our hydrocarbon industry to full tilt in order to surround the country with nuclear power stations.

If we did this then perhaps the CO2 levels would only drop slowly. Instead of dropping through the floor and causing famines.

Read these posts. Not one line was pre-meditated. Its full stream-of-consciousness:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

THE REAL LOOMING PROBLEM WITH CO2 LEVELS!!!!!

As if in proof that every constituent part of the global warming hoax is wrong, ridiculous, and the opposite of the truth we find that we DO IN FACT have a problem with looming CO2 levels. Yes it is the case that CO2 levels can never be high enough. Because optimum would surely be 1500 parts per million absolute minimum. Perhaps a carbon tax could kick in when we got to 2500 parts per million.

But even that aside …….. the looming catastrophe with CO2-levels is that the scientific evidence suggests that CO2 levels may soon drop through the floor. They will go higher than today. But then the evidence suggests that they will drop through the floor.

Is there any evidence going the other way? Is there any evidence that the CO2 levels WON’T drop through the floor?

No I don’t think so but our hope lies with our hydro-carbon industry. Our hydro-carbon industry may have filled some “carbon-sinks” of nature that are limited insofar as what they can absorb. This I know nothing about. And I would be thankful for any advice on this one specific point. I know about the carbon-rain which effectively takes carbon out of the biosphere (more is the pity).

Personally I cannot see any of it. And the scientific record indicates that the CO2 levels ought to go up, perhaps faster than before, and then crash.

We have the CO2 levels peaking at above 470ppm sometime in the mid-40’s and then crashing. We know that the 30’s were very warm. We would expect that the warming would lead to outgassing of CO2 from the oceans.

Also the record shows a leap of CO2 levels in the late 1820’s and a free-fall sometime thereafter. The levels dropping below 330ppm in the early 1840’s, again in the late 1840’s, but dropping more consistently below those levels for a long time in the late 1860’s. One wonders if there has been any serious studies matching the failure of our already feeble CO2 levels, with outbreaks of hunger all over the world, if not famine.

“The Great Famine (Irish: An Gorta Mór lit: The Great Hunger[1] or An Drochshaol, lit: The Bad Life) was a period of starvation, disease and mass emigration between 1845 and 1852[2]”

I read off the graph and then went straight to the only famine I knew of about that time. And there you have it. Early 1840’s dip in CO2 and late 1840’s dip in CO2 is at least consistent with (fails to falsify….. in the modern parlance “validates”) the thesis that low CO2 levels will lead to problems with agriculture.

I criticise and abuse any taxpayer funded study that validates (ie fails to falsify) any theory. But I stole no money just searching the wiki and making that link minutes ago.

I shall now try and make a google search for famines in the 1870’s.

Well what do you know. Another famine. Another IRISH famine. This time in 1879.

Referring back to the CO2 record (I’m doing this in realtime I shit you not) we see that we had low CO2 levels nearly all the time from the late 1880’s on in right up until the 1940’s. Now perhaps anyone who was going to die from a reduction of yield may have died pretty early on.

Famines generally happen a year or two after the farmers eat their seed crops. You have hunger before that. Then more hunger. Then the farmers end up selling a lot of their gear in a situation of even more hunger. And then they eat the seed. The next year the famine begins and the year after its worse. So a drop in CO2 levels in the early 1840’s is consistent with a famine breaking out in 1845.

I just went hunting around the house for a book where it claimed that MILLIONS of people surviving on farming in tropical areas perished of famine in the 19th Century. I do not know if it was in the late nineteenth century. Consistent with the CO2 levels we would expect most of the dying to be a few years after that latter nasty drop in the CO2 levels.

Lets see if thats true. I’ll put in famines tropical nineteenth century and see if I come up with anything. Then I’ll get back to you.

Chodorov
15 Aug 09 at 8:14 pm
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
“Steven Stoll – Late Victorian Holocausts: El Nino Famines and the Making of the Third World ”

LATE Victorian? Interesting.

“The Great Famine of 1876–78 (also the Southern India famine of 1876–78 or the Madras famine of 1877) was a famine in India that began in 1876 and affected south and southwestern India (Madras, Mysore, Hyderabad, and Bombay) for a period of two years. In its second year famine also spread north to some regions of the Central Provinces and the United Provinces, and to a small area in the Punjab.[1] The famine ultimately covered an area of 257,000 square miles (670,000 km2) and caused distress to a population totaling 58,500,000.[1]”

Bear in mind we are saying that the CO2 record shows that the CO2 levels dropped precipitously low in the late 1860’s and stayed, for the most part low, for a very long time, although there was a lot of variability.

Famines tropical “nineteenth century”

The above is the search I’ve got going. And basically I’m going straight down the list of results ignoring google books and things. And already we have something interesting here. Maybe I ought to mention when the CO2 levels were high. And that way you if you find a serious famine just after the levels were high you can kick my ass for presumptuousness.

The levels were already high and skyrocketed up during the 1810’s. They peaked in the late 1820’s and dropped really quickly but one would not have expected a problem during the 1830’s since the CO2 levels were relatively high. Bear in mind that in 1810 the Napolenonic wars were still on. Right up until 1815. After they ended the “Corn Laws” were passed in Britain. And these laws were not repealed until 1846. Or in other words until after the Irish Famine was in progress.

Goodness me. CO2 level analysis puts an whole new perspective on history.

You would have to say that the Europeans who survived the Napoleonic Wars were unbelievably lucky. Since they had this lucky burst of high CO2 levels after the Napoleonic wars to fill their mouths with food. Whereas after World War I they really only had President Harding. And if they didn’t have President Harding and the American people then surely they would have all died.

Chodorov
15 Aug 09 at 8:35 pm

Update. The Dalton Minimum lasted from 1790-1830. Always this is what happens. You find stuff that forces you to temper your earlier rash predictions. We know that the strongest signal in the ice cores is an 800 year lag between warming and CO2 levels. This surely cannot be an independent fact from the 1600 year cycle-time of the great ocean conveyor. But there would likely be shorter signals as well that had more to do with the upper oceans. If the sun shone brightly before the dalton minimum started in 1790, we might expect warm temperatures to continue,if not climb, a decade after that perhaps. Then a further time lag between then and the CO2 maximum. We would want to know what was happening 800 years before as well. But it is to be remembered that this 800 years business is based on one line of evidence (ice cores) and we can never feel like we can be sure about something without 3 or more convergent (independent) lines of evidence which speak the same truth.

Here I’m saying that my prediction of CO2 levels dropping probably before 2020 has to be tempered and even definitely before 2030 might not pay off at the bank.

Supposing the strong solar period came to an end at solar cycle 22. The warming continued through at least half of 23. We may expect a surge rather than a fall of CO2 levels perhaps. And the free-fall… well who knows when. But it would be expected to show up sooner or later. If our hydrocarbon industry can run full bore and flatten what would otherwise be a disastrous drop in CO2 levels then obviously that is a good thing.

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Responses

  1. Thanks for the insight into your writing methodology. I think you would get the same result by throwing magnets with random text onto the fridge

    THATS NOT ALWAYS MY WRITING METHODOLOGY. BUT THIS STORY MAY HAVE LEGS. SINCE IT WAS A HYPOTHESIS THAT AT LEAST SEEMED TO CONFIRM ITSELF IN REALTIME.

    I DID FIND ALLEGED FAMINES IN THE 1820’S. OR ONE AT LEAST. BUT THEY WERE TINY, HARD TO FIND, AND 1T DID SEEM THAT THE 1820’S, WHEN CO2 WAS OVER 400 PARTS PER MILLION FOR A GREAT DEAL OF THE TIME, WAS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE 19TH CENTURY, RELATIVELY FAMINE FREE.

    THIS WAS ALL THE MORE EXTRAORDINARY SINCE THIS RESULT COMES ONLY FIVE YEARS AFTER THE END OF THE NAPOLEONIC WARS.

    NOW PEOPLE CAN LOOK AND THEY WILL LIKELY FIND SMALL AMOUNTS OF COUNTER-EVIDENCE TO THIS IMPRESSION I’M GIVING AND THATS FINE. BUT THE FACT THAT THINGS SEEMED TO GO THE WAY OF MY SPECULATION IN REALTIME IS SURELY SOMETHING THAT A YOUNG PHD STUDENT OUGHT TO LOOK INTO AS A POSSIBLE THESIS TOPIC.

    ALSO THERE WAS A GREAT DEAL OF MASS-STARVATION AND OTHERWISE MASS-DEATH AFTER WORLD WAR ONE. WE HAVE PUT IT ALL DOWN TO THE SPANISH INFLUENZA, THE ATTEMPT BY THE RUSSIANS TO ESTABLISH TRUE COMMUNISM WHICH MUST OF NECESSITY LEAD TO IMMEDIATE BREAKDOWN…….. THE STARVATION OF THE GERMANS, WHICH WE PUT DOWN ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY TO THE BRITISH BLOCKADE (BUT WE DON’T KNOW HOW MANY WERE KILLED AND WE NEVER TALK ABOUT IT)……

    ….. BUT THE VERY LOW LEVELS OF CO2 DURING POST WORLD WAR I IN COMPARISON TO THE STATE OF PLAY AFTER THE NAPOLEONIC WAR, OUGHT TO BE PART OF THE PICTURE.

    THERE WAS A MARSHALL PLAN DURING THAT TIME THAT STOPPED ALL THE EUROPEANS STARVING DID YOU KNOW THAT? BUT IT WAS CARRIED OUT BY HARDING (WITH HOOVER AS THE MAN ON THE JOB) AND SO THE LEFTIST HISTORIANS DON’T WANT US TO KNOW ABOUT IT.

    • Everybody knows about the Marshall plan and there is no lefty conspiracy to remove it from history books.

      YOU IDIOT. DON’T YOU KNOW WHEN THE MARSHALL PLAN WAS? I’M TALKING ABOUT THE HARDING “MARSHALL PLAN” AFTER WORLD WAR ONE THAT IS AIRBRUSHED FROM THE RECORD.

      ATTEMPT TO NOT BE AN IDIOT AND GET THAT READING COMPREHENSION SEEN TO.

  2. Bird

    Try the fridge magnet experiment as I think it could work out better.

  3. Tell me about it. Joseph Cambria …….. Scientist.

    Fire away. I’m listening.


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