Posted by: graemebird | November 16, 2009

In Science We Use The Tools That Are To Hand/ Where There Is A Will There Is A Way.

From elsewhere:

Graeme Bird
15. November 2009 at 18:17
“I just have no way of evaluating those proposals, as I am not trained in evaluating scientific evidence outside economics.”

You are trained in the use of certain tools. You do have a way.

1. Being highly skilled in statistics and quantitative measures you can test in a semi-formal way, better than myself, the implausibility of events being entirely independent.

2. Having first hand experience of academic life you ought to know that we can never favour incumbent paradigms. that ought to be the lesson of Hans Kuhns sociologically accurate study of the progress of science. Unfortunately everyone else, and perhaps Hans himself, appeared to have missed the point.

3. It is not necessary to have the final word or even a working hypothesis on physics to know that reification is unacceptable in science. And that Newton did not find the cause of gravity. Hence we at least know what we don’t know. I say this consciously copying the great philosophical statement of your former secretary of defense. That should be on the walls of many business and philosophy departments. He may have made mistakes but he was a genius in some ways.

4. One observation of Newtons that has never been found to be suspect is that forces come in equal and opposite pairs. Hence if gravity is altered in any way it will be the force of inertia-under-acceleration that will replace gravity in the depths of a planet should gravity be reduced even a tiny amount for the smallest fraction of a second.

5. Supposing we take a non-occult view of gravity. No occult action at a distance. No occult reification. To take a non-occult view is to reject the mainstream. Gravity is balanced by the upward equal force of compression. And obviously this is a massive force. If we find anything out there in the universe that is correlated with coronal mass ejections and Supervolcanic reactions we ought to put two and two together. There is no sensible theory of gravity that could possibly go against this contention.

6. Since we do not have the proven theory we scramble around looking for the right scientific tools to be able to make some confident statements about this matter. Surely some tools are useful to make a judgement here.

7. Turns out Scott, that the best tools we have to assess this dinosaur asteroid business, once the rock polishers have given us their findings, is precisely the tools you were trained in. I am confident that a straight application of statistics, probability and quant. methods would tell us of the implausibility, of the terrible punishments to the dinosaurs, being not based on a single root cause.

**** Note. I’m sure you all spotted I got mixed up between Thomas Kuhn and someone else. And I called him Hans.



  1. Your comment is awaiting moderation.
    CL I think we need to face the possibility that Rudd may be a barely reconstructed communist. A fellow that has merely shifted his loyalty from the Soviet Union to the even more communistic idea of global governance.

    You know I’m worried for your Church. The global governance types may see it as an unacceptable competitor and go so far as to put up some crazies to destroy the Vatican.

    Well anyway with Rudd. If you look at it, its no good sign that Philip Adams was promoting Rudd for very many years. In the same way that Bahnisch was promoting that communist sheila deputy of his. In the same way that I heard hard commie leftists in America promoting Adolph Hussein Osama for President before anyone knew who he was even.

    The reformed embers of communism now appear to have morphed and adapted to not now having a centre. And these people know who they are. I think Rudd could be a radical leftist of the most utterly extreme sort.

    We might not know

    16 Nov 09 at 1:41 pm
    Your comment is awaiting moderation.
    The other thing CL is you ought to communicate to your contacts in the upper reaches of the Church that they must adapt also to work in exile. To work under a situation where the Pope has been murdered or exiled. Or for us here in Australia to make plans to set up a potential home away from home for these guys. But not one where they influence Australia itself too excessively.

    The EU conspirators and the Global Governance conspirators will get together to wipe the Vatican out. I can almost see it in my minds eye. The progress is such that one ought only expect one or two more Popes at the most prior to the church being destroyed or sent into exile. We ought to prepare for that now. Certainly if I wound up in high office the contingency plans would be going forth that night.

    16 Nov 09 at 1:46 pm
    Leave a Reply

  2. Your comment is awaiting moderation.
    Well there you are. I think Krauthammer is really smart. He,like me, completely underestimated how useless Washington was. And therefore how bad things would go from mid-2003 on.

    The only people who really have been shown to be right all along, in my view, are Angelo Codevilla and Michael Ledeen.

    Angelo for advocating killing regime leadership and getting home as soon as possible. Michael for advocating a combination of soft power and aiding opponent groups to bring people down while sparing our fighting men.

    16 Nov 09 at 1:58 pm
    Your comment is awaiting moderation.
    Phil. Really. I think its a strategic mistake for you and CL to be going at it. Its Cambria and people like him that is the problem. If he is sidelined then a better standard of conversation can prevail. You and CL don’t bring out the best in each-other when you fight.

  3. Your comment is awaiting moderation.
    “The thing to understand about Homer is that he cannot abide criticisms of the Labor Party UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES.”

    I can sort of see that as a fault. But its not necessarily a hanging fault. This is like the suspicions, that might be wrong, that I was having about some lapsed Catholics. In that if they have rejected the religion to some extent one wonders if they will give false allegiance to other institutions. They will start worshiping the golden calf institutions. So we have Homer with Keynesian doctrine and the labour party. And Cambria with his obnoxious American banking mobster idols.

    I would just hope that when Homer is faithfully representing orthodox Keynesian doctrine, in his learned way, that everyone stop being rude at him but try and influence him to realise that it is not good enough to restate the paradigm. He must prove it or give it away. He’s got Edneys disease.

  4. Your comment is awaiting moderation.
    “CL, jc and MichaelF are anti-intellectual”

    But thats not normally true Phil. Whereas JC is always anti-intellectual the other two are stuck in some sort of tribal gear with relation to you.

    Fellas. I don’t ask much and I don’t ask often but I’m asking you to back up at least 20% with this girl. Think of how many times you’ve insulted her AS A WOMAN. I’ve never seen anything like this.

    One time I abused Helen’s friend and she was really neat and she never came back since that day. I’ve always regretted it. Now Fisk I don’t get you at all. She hasn’t been pre-emptively nasty to your Church like with CL. And CL. You and the others have insulted her AS A WOMAN to overkill level. You ought to remember that and back off, cut her some slack, and think about the overkill thats been put in from all directions.

    She wasn’t on our side in the first place. She never betrayed us like Cambria. Yet you are abusing her in the strongest terms and you cannot seem to break out of this. And you let Cambria off the hook.

    Its one time I’m glad I’ve got the ADD lone wolf disease. So that I haven’t been caught up in this pack-animal craziness.

    If we were classifying humans like animals according to taxonomy we might say that young girls in their teens and twenties are ambivalent insofar as their response to bad treatment is concerned. And being nasty to them can get good results with a large subset of them. This is no reason to abuse young women, since they are not animals, and one cannot find an excuse to be cruel to animals either. Although it may be an argument to play the field a little.

    But with women over thirty the overwhelming tendency is for them to respond well to good treatment. So why don’t you just try a little bit of it. Not to get a good response. But because doing the right thing is the right thing to do.

    16 Nov 09 at 6:03 pm
    Phil says:

    I didn’t say Hasan was a hero at all”. Tick

    Phil bu Phil said ” In other words a brave hero. ”


    16 Nov 09 at 6:04 pm
    Your comment is awaiting moderation.
    I’m going to take a devil’s advocated approach to the Hassan case. Because the lesson hasn’t been learned here. This will happen again and again and again if the Americans don’t improve strategy. And soon it will happen with a nuclear weapon. Now I told you CL that their approach was strategically moronic. You objected but you let it slide. Too much lately you are not living up to your former high standards.

    Do we call this an act of terrorism? Or an act of war? Lets take it to the open thread. You guys know more about the case. Lets have your argument on that one point.

    16 Nov 09 at 6:06 pm

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