Posted by: graemebird | June 10, 2011

The Dying Man Silently Fingers His Murderer: Epistemology Revision

From Elsewhere:

Graeme Bird:
June 10th, 2011 at 5:09 pm

“(a) Observations are made.
(b) An hypothesis is evinced to explain the observations.
(c) The hypothesis is useful if it makes predictions.
(d) The predictions are compared to observations of the real world.
(e) If the hypothesis agrees with all observations then it is elevated to the status of a theory.
(f) If any observation disagrees with the hypothesis or theory then the hypothesis or theory is disproved.
(g) A disproved hypothesis or theory must be amended or rejected.”

No good. Because you need the context that only the ranking of three or more hypotheses can bring. In the same way as we need to have at least three proxies for a reconstruction, we ought to have three or more hypotheses for ranking and re-ranking as the data is considered. Or else all the data will be contextualized inappropriately; in view of the hypothesis one has in mind.

You cannot and must not judge an hypothesis in a vacuum. Its the hypotheses that wind up falling by the wayside which are those that point you in the right direction. Think of a dying man fingering his murderer as he silently keels over, and you will remember what I’m saying here.

In this context it must be understood that there is no such thing as the null hypothesis. This is such a daft and anti-philosophical notion its hard to understand how it ever got started. The invention of the null hypothesis is really a failure to properly define the competing hypotheses.

The design of research projects is bedeviled by these philosophically incoherent notions. Should we wish to design a research project with only one hypothesis we can do nought but “validate” that hypothesis. To validate an hypothesis is simply to FAIL TO FALISIFY that hypothesis. There is a technical term for research projects designed along these lines and that technical term is: “a waste of money.”

Any of you who want to try things my way will see your productivity and cost-effectiveness will pick up immediately. You need to do a lot more pacing about and pre-production before the project is launched. You have been handicapped by crap epistemology coming from 20th century philosophers.

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  1. Lord don’t you hate it when the Chinaman starts using Cambria’s material:

    “ – we oppose the State except when it comes to forcing all banks to become safety deposit boxes”

    Show some fucking pride Jason. YOU are the economist. Not that stupid fucking wop Cambria. This is exactly the same toadying you did in relation to Andrew Reynolds. YOU are the economist and you are not to sell out your field of study to these know-nothing parasites.

    • Graeme, the odious jc is a perfect representative specimen of the parasitic class of anti-humans whose work and life produces nothing of value or meaning and zero common wealth.

      But his/its existence can be viewed as a necessary evil in the sense that it is inevitably playing a very productive role in contributing to the failure of a morally bankrupt system that will one day be overwhelmed and destroyed from within by its own internal contradictions and inefficiencies, waste and corruption.

      By contrast, even in China, economic planning and investment is overwhelmingly focussed on socially useful production, in the needs of its people and the betterment of their lives and conditions of living, in infrastructure and in new technologies.

      • Well I cannot really disagree with all that. But of course I don’t have time to put in about one hundred caveats to do with China.

        Planning ought not be about increasing the sum total of stealing or reducing the sum total of human freedom. The opposite ought to be the case in total. But we do need strategic planning, having found ourselves in this low low position of decades of mismanagement and institutional rot.

        The key is you need to effect the vision while reducing the sum total of stealing and restriction. The motto to come from Julius Ceasar “Make Haste Slowly”. The opposite point of view to infrastructural policy then what we have seen from the labor party.

        You get maybe 10 or 20 projects going without cost-benefit analysis. But they go forward with such a small budget that costs do not spin out of control. You only increase the budget when you can do so specifically in the context of massive increases in cost-effectiveness.

        START. START. JUST START. But the budgets have to be tiny, and taken from dissolved government departments.

  2. “Any of you who want to try things my way will see your productivity and cost-effectiveness will pick up immediately. ”

    Are you a paid science adviser that corporations should be hiring? YES AND NO. NO I’M NOT PAID. AND YES THEY OUGHT TO BE HIRING ME. IF THEY WANT TO GET MORE OUT OF THEIR RESEARCH BUDGET.

  3. Isn’t it interesting how we can learn very quickly the things we want to learn and conversely are slow to grasp or understand those which we don’t.

    And the things we really want to learn are those which satisfy physical needs or passions or which confirm our intellectual predispositions.

    So in any field of science, new facts and new hypotheses are accepted quickly and easily by those inclined to do so for ideological reasons. They are rejected, or accepted grudgingly, by those whose world view or philosophy does not easily accommodate the new data or who are outraged by the implications of the facts and hypotheses in question.

  4. The history and evolution of ideas is probably the most endlessly fascinating subject of all.
    And so many questions if we think backwards. Such as who had the idea to divide time into BC and AD and when? Why do we divide a circle into 360 degrees? When and where were the plus and minus signs introduced into mathematics?

    Perhaps my favourite question, because it was my first, i.e. I recall first asking it of my self and mulling over it at great length when I was four years old: why is there something, i.e. this world, this life, rather than nothing?

  5. Thats the toughest one of all. You would expect there to be endless space and nothing else in it. The young peoples understanding of things has been so corrupted by special relativity that they would think that even space is contingent.

    I don’t have a good answer for why there is something and not nothing. But I think that when SOMETHING starts it starts in a fractal way. Expanding inward and outward simultaneously. I think also that the basic building block is “flux.”

    The other thing about this story, and I’m not NOT talking about the mythical “dark matter” ……..the other thing about this story is we must differentiate the SOMETHING into STUFF and MATTER. The matter is that STUFF that is locked into the gravitational network. Whereas there must be a great deal of non-matter stuff that is not locked into that network.

    A consequence of this is that we can say that:


    That is to say we would not have our reality if matter did not convert unconnected STUFF into connected MATTER.. “Connected” being a redundancy in this context.

    I hope this helps.

    The other thing is my image of a cross in space. But thats in the archive.

    So I cannot give you the ultimate answer. But the above is a bit of work around the edges.

  6. The rabid, fevered bank-stealing keeps rolling along. This sort of pillaging could lead to civilisational collapse if its not halted and reversed. You have the Greek (bank) bailout. Because thats what it is. I just heard that the European central bank has been loading its balance sheet up on shit. Thats direct banker stealing from the public using the central bank as its agent. Alex Jones says that the Bilderburg meeting emphasised that the stealing is to go on. So now there is simply nothing that we can do about it. Northern Hemisphere populations just have to sit there while people steal off them.

    Naturally we cannot expect any sort of economic recovery in the States, or much progress in Europe, while this amazing thieving is going on. Any false beliefs that the Northern Hemisphere democracies are democracies-for-real has to be put behind people. They must regain their democracies and not delude themselves that they have them at this time.

    Naturally that woppy bastard Cambria agrees that all this stealing ought to be going ahead.

  7. To have an e-coli virus that could kill so many people in a wealthy country like Germany has to be seen as entirely suspect. As a matter of fact we have to consider that the Northern Hemisphere banking/covert-ops/shadow government networks have gone near crazy with hubris and why not? No-one will reign them in.

    Now consider what it would take to mutate a virus such that German hospital treatment, involving pretty much all categories of anti-biotics …….. would have been rendered ineffective. Its not possible that this could have come out of organic bean sprout farming. People have to get real about this. If it was Yemen or even Greece then one could sort of wonder about it. But not Germany. So we ought not think of the shadow government as a purely American phenomenon. Its clearly an international network.

    • “To have an e-coli virus that could kill so many people in a wealthy country like Germany has to be seen as entirely suspect. ”

      E-Coli is a bacteria, not a virus, dipshit. You can’t even get basic details right.

      • Right. Good call for a change. I knew that but I wasn’t thinking.

    • Yeah, you’re right in the sense that the e-coli disaster is yet another example of how corporate capitalism fouls things up.

      All such bacteria, no matter where it occurs, was engineered by the industrial food system. Most of it arises at factory farms. All such large-scale, widely distributed outbreaks are possible only on account of corporate production and distribution systems.

      Food markets are naturally overwhelmingly local/regional. Corporate distribution systems (i.e., almost all distribution beyond the regional) are 100% the artificial creation of crony capitalism. So in a true free market for food, such outbreaks would not exist. They’d be impossible.

      Once again, we see the crimes against humanity of the crony capitalist nexus.

  8. You’d like this book. It’s a useful corrective to the triumphalism and dogmatism of some scientists. The author emphasises the provisional nature of much science, particularly physics, e.g. he says that black holes are “putative”, that the quantum gravity project hasn’t provided answers because it doesn’t fully understand the problem that it’s addressing. He also thought the idea the universe began with a Big Bang will be found to be false and that we do not know how the universe began.. He said the Big Bang was not so much a theory as a model. He said science is far from over and that we will probably develop a new physics.

  9. I don’t take anyone seriously who takes a contrary view to the positions you’ve mentioned. Black holes as described by the lame-stream are not putative. They are anti-empirical and wrong. But the galaxies do have large nuclei that could be described as black holes, were the term not given over to nonsense. The “dark rift” in the galaxy seems to let out only x-rays and gamma-rays most of the time, as far as light is concerned. But it lets out matter as well. I’ve seen a description of the galaxy which uses the principles of compressible and non-compressible liquids. That is to say that the dark rift doesn’t simply swallow matter and never let it out.

  10. In theory and in practice, deficit stimulus spending destroys jobs directly. This is something that Sinclair and the others don’t understand and will not admit. Perhaps Kates understands this fact but the others aren’t up to learning anything.

  11. From elsewhere:

    Graeme Bird:
    June 13th, 2011 at 5:50 pm

    Before alleged climate scientists, and their skeptical competitors receive more research grants, I’d like them to be able to explain pretty simple stuff about the weather. For example there has been another water spout out at sea. I haven’t heard of convincing conventional explanations for all these tornado attacks and water spouts. Or even for just one of them. Why aren’t people out there tracking these things, and seeing what they can find out about whats underneath the water where the waterspout goes? I suppose its because they have not noticed that they have no good explanation for these weather events.

    The best weather forecaster I’ve seen is probably Piers Corbyn. He works with sun-earth-moon scenarios of the past. He says whats going to happen on that basis, but he doesn’t really show why.

    An even more sophisticated vision of what the weather is about is coming from the scientist James McCanney. I got his self-published book straight from his website. His understanding of things gives a good explanation for why Piers Corbyn is getting such good results. But James McCanney could not now ever pass peer review in a blue fit.

    James cannot even get in the wikipedia anymore. You go to wiki and an iron-locked page tells us that James McCanney doesn’t need to be in wiki because he’s only known for “that electric universe thingy.”

    I think we are just being herded. I think we have to give away any anti-conspiracy notions. Banks are still stealing hand over fist in the Northern Hemisphere and no-one can lift a finger to stop them. It looks like the Northern Hemisphere at the least is populated by people who are being ruthlessly shepherded along.

    There seems to be a pattern behind misunderstandings in science. For example why do we imagine that lightning can be formed by clouds alone? Water vapor, freezing to ice water leads to that sort of electrical charge? Just ridiculous. There is no known mechanism to produce these huge charges. But everything we have to believe negates the electrical solar system ideas.

    There was a breakthrough when the idea of the Dyson-Harrop satellite was allowed to become a mainstream idea. The powerful electrical currents in the solar system cannot be denied, at the same time as reports of how much energy a Dyson-Harrop satellite can theoretically generate, are allowed to get about as a mainstream idea.

    Allowing articles on Dyson-Harrop to get through to the lame-stream media comes across as a strategic mistake if you interpolate that some elite is buggering everything from the top down. If there is that much electrical energy up there in space we can see that earth weather is largely just about how some of this electrical energy manages to make its way down to the lower troposphere and into the earth.

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  12. James McCanney’s website is quite similar to …. NO ITS NOT YOU ARE A LIAR.



  14. “But of course I don’t have time to put in about one hundred caveats to do with China.

    well of course there are caveats. I think we’d agree on dozens if not most.

    But the point stands. China does not have a parasitic layer of traders, investors, bankers who simply play the market for their own personal enrichment forming the predominant part of the active economy in terms of the private appropriation of wealth without any socially productive goal, expression or outcome.

    The likes of JC are a cog in the wheel of that predominant – read socially useless and destructive – part of the economy in many western countries, above all, the US.

    It’s a revealing fact and does point to an inherent advantage China has right now over the US and into the future. Like it for other reasons or not.

  15. The USA is sucking in and destroying capital goods. China is sucking in commodities and creating capital goods. Its also grabbed the ownership of a lot of rare earth resources. So yes you’d have to say that right now the US was a destroyer of wealth and China a creator.

    • Thank you. We are in agreement once again.

      And have moved closer towards the truth.

  16. Rod Stewart clip?

    I raise you this one. Specifically, the whole of body sex-on-a-stick beyond cool backing singer in the sunnies.

    Down girl.

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